The Greek voters have overwhelmingly rejected the EU bailout offer. In a crucial referendum on a debt deal of billions of euros in exchange for more austerity measures, 61 percent of voters voted "no" while 39 percent voted "yes", raising fear of a chaotic departure of the country from the common European currency. Now events could play out in a number of ways , but what I think most important is that the creditors should respect the result. They must realize that Greeks have said no to austerity rather than to euro membership. Greece must not be left in the lurch. Failure to keep the country in the eurozone could set a dangerous precedent for other EU members.
Are we safe from the Greece crisis? Most pundits agree that the Indian economy cannot be directly affected, but a possible Grexit is likely to impact all major global economies, which, in turn, may impact the Indian economy as well. On Monday, Indian stock markets and the rupee shrugged off the Greece concerns, but if the two sides fail to reach a more favourable bailout deal and Greece exits the euro, the situation may worsen, affecting India's capital inflows and the currency movement. So, the Centre should not lower its guard though "the direct exposure is very limited" as stated by RBI governor Raghuram Rajan.
Additionally, in the backdrop of continuous fall in our exports, the Greek crisis brings no good news for our exporters. India's overseas shipments fell for a sixth straight month in May, ramping up pressure on the economy and if the crisis in the eurozone, which comprises of 18-19 percent of our exports, deepens any more this could impact our exports further. In this situation, I think it would be wiser for the exporting community to diversify and shift their focus to other global markets. On the other hand, the Centre must do its part — it should make no delay in straining every nerve to rescue the sector from further downfall.
Meanwhile, recent data released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy shows that there was an 8.4 percent increase in projects under implementation in the quarter ended June 30. This is the fastest growth since the September 2012 quarter. There was also a decline in the number of stalled projects, with unstalling being faster for government projects. Since March last year, projects worth about 2 percent of GDP have been unstalled, according to an estimate. This development is encouraging, and I think government spending at this stage will act as a big catalyst to private investment, which is yet to take off.
I invite your opinions. |