The International Monetary Fund has pegged India's economic growth for 2014 at 5.4 percent. This projection is done by "assuming that government efforts to revive investment growth succeed and export growth strengthens after the recent rupee depreciation". However, it has also cautioned that there is an urgent need to push investment by means of structural reforms and exports by removing supply bottlenecks. Last week's official data on industrial output and exports also highlights the same fact.

The February IIP reading, weakest in nine months, shows a 1.9 percent drop in industrial output, well below the expectations of a 0.9 percent increase. This downfall was led by a sharp 3.7 percent drop in manufacturing output. If we add to this dismal data the recent CSO forecast of overall 0.2 percent contraction in manufacturing in the last fiscal, it is not difficult to see how high inflation, infrastructure problems and delayed policy reforms have increasingly taken a toll on investor confidence.

Exports have taken a back seat too. We have missed the last fiscal's $325 billion target, despite achieving a 3.98 percent growth to $312.35 billion from the previous year's $300.40 billion. Most importantly, figures of the last two months are very discouraging, with exports falling by 3.67 percent in February and 3.15 percent in March. If preventive measures are not taken now then our exports could be in more danger in the coming months. I hope the new government, as soon as it is formed next month, will give urgent attention in this direction.

Meanwhile, it has been reported that the new foreign trade policy is on the anvil and the exporter community is expecting some friendly measures. According to export association FIEO, the focus should be on services exports, e-commerce, hi-technology products, merchanting trade, branded exports and effective co-ordination with states to push exports. CII adds that market diversification should be pushed further. These suggestions sound good, but here I would like to invite views of our readers on what more they want from the upcoming FTP.

During the last fiscal, some adverse conditions were reversed successfully, with the most striking breakthrough achieved against current account deficit. In addition, fiscal deficit was also contained — though some compromises had to be made — to a great extent. But when it comes to reviving the industrial activities, we failed miserably; neither much was done to make the best of the positive momentum exports gained for several months. If they have to be revived this fiscal year, a lot remains to be done. It is the next government that will have to take this responsibility.

I invite your feedback.