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TOPIC : Estimates of GDP for 1st quarter
The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1, of 2007-08, both at constant (1999-2000) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP. The details of the estimates are:
ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY:
(a) At constant (1999-2000) prices:
Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices for Q1 of 2007-08 is estimated at Rs 7,23,132 crore, as against Rs. 6,61,335 crore in Q1 of 2006-07, showing a growth rate of 9.3 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q1 of 2007-08 over Q1 of 2006-07 are, ‘manufacturing’ at 11.9 percent, ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 8.3 percent, ‘construction’ at 10.7 percent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 12.0 percent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 11.0 percent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 7.6 percent. The growth rates in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ and ‘mining & quarrying’ are estimated at 3.8 percent, and 3.2 percent, respectively during this period.
According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q1 of 2007-08, the crops rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses during the Rabi season (which ended in June, 2007) of 2006-07 recorded growth rates of (-) 6.4 percent, 8.0 percent, 17.1 percent, and 11.4 percent, respectively over the corresponding season in the previous agriculture year. Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds declined by 11.3 percent during the rabi season of 2006-07, while the production of cotton and sugarcane recorded growth rates of 22.7 percent and 22.8 percent, respectively during the agriculture year 2006-07.
According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 3.2 percent, 11.9 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively during Q1 of 2007-08, as compared to the growth rates of 3.6 percent, 11.7 percent and 5.3 percent in these sectors during Q1 of 2006-07. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel registered growth rates of 6.8 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively during Q1 of 2007-08, as against the growth rates of 10.2 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively in Q1 of 2006-07.
Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 2.6 per cent and 5.1 percent, respectively during Q1 of 2007-08. In the transport and communication sectors, the production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation, passengers handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of 6.6 percent, 14.3 percent, 11.6 percent, 21.8 percent and 47.0 percent, respectively during Q1 of 2007-08 over Q1 of 2006-07. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 26.1 percent, and 25.9 percent, respectively during Q1 of 2007-08 over Q1 of 2006-07.
(b) At current prices:
GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q1 of 2007-08, is estimated at Rs. 9,78,760 crore, as against Rs. 8,50,797 crore in Q1, 2006-07, showing an increase of 15.0 percent.
The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 8.0 percent, 3.4 percent, 13.0 percent, 5.7 percent, 2.4 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively during Q1 of 2007-08, over Q1 of 2006-07. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 6.3 percent during Q1 of 2007-08 over Q1 of 2006-07.
ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP:
The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure:
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 6,10,376 crore in Q1 of 2007-08 as against Rs. 5,43,469 crore in Q1 of 2006-07. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 4,52,370 crore in Q1 of 2007-08 as against Rs. 4,28,243 crore in Q1 of 2006-07. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during Q1 of 2007-08 are estimated at 57.6 percent and 58.8 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.5 percent and 60.8 percent, respectively in Q1 of 2006-07.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure:
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 1,41,011 crore in Q1 of 2007-08 as against Rs. 1,19,973 crore in Q1 of 2006-07. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 97,438 crore in Q1 of 2007-08 as against Rs. 88,188 crore in Q1 of 2006-07. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during Q1 of 2007-08 are estimated at 13.3 percent and 12.7 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 13.1 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively in Q1 of 2006-07.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation:
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 3,31,796 crore in Q1 of 2007-08 as against Rs. 2,67,472 crore in Q1 of 2006-07. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 2,28,103 crore in Q1 of 2007-08 as against Rs. 1,96,763 crore in Q1 of 2006-07. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during Q1 of 2007-08 are estimated at 31.3 percent and 29.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.3 percent and 27.9 percent, respectively in Q1 of 2006-07.
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